Tampa Bay vs Washington Props

Tom Brady Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) warms up before the first half of an NFL football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)

  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers clash with the Washington Football Team on Saturday (Jan. 9th, 8:15 pm EST)
  • Tom Brady has a 12-1 TD-to-INT rate since Tampa’s Week 13 bye
  • Read below for analysis and our favorite prop bets for this Wild Card Weekend matchup

Saturday’s Wild Card extravaganza culminates with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Washington Football Team (Jan. 9th, 8:15 pm EST). Tom Brady and the Bucs have been underwhelming in four primetime games this season, but given how dominant their offense has been recently, it’s hard to imagine any team slowing them down.

Oddsmakers certainly expect a big day for the Buccaneers, as they’ve been listed as hefty road favorites. Tampa Bay is currently favored by 8, and their lofty implied team total suggests a big night from TB-12 in the player props market.

Buccaneers vs Washington Player Props

Quarterback Completions Passing Yards Passing TD
Tom Brady (NE) 25.5 (Ov +107 | Un -134 292.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -190)
Running Backs Attempts Rush Yards Rush + Receiving Yards
Ronald Jones (TB) 14.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 56.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) N/A
Leonard Fournette (TB) N/A 20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Antonio Gibson (WAS) 12.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 47.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
Peyton Barber (WAS) N/A 9.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) N/A
J.D. McKissic (WAS) N/A 21.5 (Ov +101 | Un -125) 55.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
RB, WR & TE Receptions Receiving Yards Longest Reception
Ronald Jones (TB) 1.5 (Ov -137 | Un +110) 12.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 8.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
J.D. McKissic (WAS) 4.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 31.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 13.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Terry McLaurin (WAS) 5.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115) 68.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Cam Sims (WAS)  3.5 (Ov +140 | Un -177) 35.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106) 17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Rob Gronkowski (TB)  3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -162) 33.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 16.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)
Logan Thomas (WAS)  3.5 (Ov -182 | Un +142) 38.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112) 17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)

All odds taken Jan 8th at DraftKings.

One thing to note before we get back to Brady, is that Washington head coach Ron Rivera said this week he’s entertaining the idea of rotating quarterbacks. Alex Smith is still not 100% recovered from his calf injury, meaning Taylor Heinicke may see snaps. The uncertainty has led online sportsbooks to avoid posting props on the Football Team’s quarterbacks. They’ve also yet to put up props for the Buccaneers’ wideouts since Mike Evans’ status is uncertain, and his availability drastically impacts the other Tampa Bay receivers’ projections.

Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker

Prop #1: Tom Brady Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes

Since the Bucs’ Week 13 bye, Brady has been on fire. He’s thrown 12 touchdown passes, against just one interception, racking up at least four scores in back-to-back outings.

While Evans isn’t a lock to play, reports out of Tampa suggest he will be on the field. That will give TB-12 a full compliment of receivers, and quite frankly an embarrassment of riches. Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski make-up arguably the best pass catching group in the NFL, and while Washington’s defense is certainly formidable, let’s not discount Brady’s motivation.

Last time we saw Brady in a playoff game he threw a pick-six to seal a disappointing loss. If you don’t think he wants to remove that image from the football world’s mine by going nuclear on Saturday, you haven’t been watching him closely enough.

Let’s also not discount the fact that Chase Young essentially called him out after Washington’s Week 17 win. No NFL star is more vindictive than Brady, and you can bet he’s been thinking about lighting up Young and his teammates all week.

Pick: Brady Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (+150), 1 unit

Prop #2: J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 Receptions and 31.5 Receiving Yards

Here’s a list of running backs with more catches in 2020 than J.D. McKissic: Alvin Kamara. That’s it. That’s the list. 83% of McKissic’s receptions have come with Washington trailing, and game script is unlikely to be in their favor as big underdogs.

McKissic has a team-high 59 targets in games that Alex Smith has started this season and at least five catches in four of his last five outings. In the Football Team’s last five losses, he’s racked up the following reception and yardage totals: 8-for-77, 9-for-56, 7-for-43, 9-for-65, 6-for-43, 6-for-46 and 7-for-40. With Washington likely to be outclassed by Tampa Bay, McKissic should be in line for a big night.

Picks: McKissic Over 4.5 Receptions (-112), Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-112), 1 unit each

Buccaneers vs Washington Scoring Props

Player Odds to Score 1st TD Odds to Score Any TD
Ronald Jones (TB) +750 +108
Antonio Gibson (WAS) +900 +145
Antonio Brown (TB) +900 +140
Chris Godwin (TB) +900 +140
Mike Evans (TB) +900 +140
Rob Gronkowski (TB) +1050 +165
J.D. McKissic (WAS) +1400 +250
Leonard Fournette (TB) +1400 +225
Terry McLaurin (WAS) +1500 +260
Logan Thomas (WAS) +1500 +260
Scotty Miller (WAS) +2000 +350
Cam Sims (WAS) +2500 +475
Tom Brady (TB) +2800 +525
Peyton Barber (TB) +3000 +525
Cameron Brate (TB) +3000 +550
Steven Sims (WAS) +3500 +700
Alex Smith (WAS) +5500 +1100
Taylor Heinicke (WAS) +5500 +1100

Prop #3: Gronk Strikes First

We’ve already discussed how much we like Brady in this spot, but who should we pair him with to score first? Evans is a great option, providing he’s healthy, but what about TB-12’s buddy Gronk?

He’s scored three times in his last four games, and ranks second on the team in targets inside the red zone. Gronk has the most favorable first touchdown odds of any Tampa Bay pass catcher, and only Evans has more receiving TD for the Bucs this season.

Pick: Gronkowski to Score First (+1050), 0.25 units

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Chris Amberley

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