Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) warms up before the first half of an NFL football game between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Sunday, Dec. 20, 2020, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers clash with the Washington Football Team on Saturday (Jan. 9th, 8:15 pm EST)
- Tom Brady has a 12-1 TD-to-INT rate since Tampa’s Week 13 bye
- Read below for analysis and our favorite prop bets for this Wild Card Weekend matchup
Saturday’s Wild Card extravaganza culminates with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers visiting the Washington Football Team (Jan. 9th, 8:15 pm EST). Tom Brady and the Bucs have been underwhelming in four primetime games this season, but given how dominant their offense has been recently, it’s hard to imagine any team slowing them down.
Oddsmakers certainly expect a big day for the Buccaneers, as they’ve been listed as hefty road favorites. Tampa Bay is currently favored by 8, and their lofty implied team total suggests a big night from TB-12 in the player props market.
Buccaneers vs Washington Player Props
|Quarterback||Completions||Passing Yards||Passing TD|
|Tom Brady (NE)||25.5 (Ov +107 | Un -134||292.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||2.5 (Ov +150 | Un -190)|
|Running Backs||Attempts||Rush Yards||Rush + Receiving Yards|
|Ronald Jones (TB)||14.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||56.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||N/A|
|Leonard Fournette (TB)||N/A||20.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||35.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Antonio Gibson (WAS)||12.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||47.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|Peyton Barber (WAS)||N/A||9.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||N/A|
|J.D. McKissic (WAS)||N/A||21.5 (Ov +101 | Un -125)||55.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|RB, WR & TE||Receptions||Receiving Yards||Longest Reception|
|Ronald Jones (TB)||1.5 (Ov -137 | Un +110)||12.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||8.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|J.D. McKissic (WAS)||4.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||31.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||13.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Terry McLaurin (WAS)||5.5 (Ov -143 | Un +115)||68.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||23.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Cam Sims (WAS)||3.5 (Ov +140 | Un -177)||35.5 (Ov -118 | Un -106)||17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||3.5 (Ov +130 | Un -162)||33.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||16.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
|Logan Thomas (WAS)||3.5 (Ov -182 | Un +142)||38.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)||17.5 (Ov -112 | Un -112)|
All odds taken Jan 8th at DraftKings.
One thing to note before we get back to Brady, is that Washington head coach Ron Rivera said this week he’s entertaining the idea of rotating quarterbacks. Alex Smith is still not 100% recovered from his calf injury, meaning Taylor Heinicke may see snaps. The uncertainty has led online sportsbooks to avoid posting props on the Football Team’s quarterbacks. They’ve also yet to put up props for the Buccaneers’ wideouts since Mike Evans’ status is uncertain, and his availability drastically impacts the other Tampa Bay receivers’ projections.
Super Bowl 55 Odds Tracker
Prop #1: Tom Brady Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes
Since the Bucs’ Week 13 bye, Brady has been on fire. He’s thrown 12 touchdown passes, against just one interception, racking up at least four scores in back-to-back outings.
This weekend will be a first: In his 21 NFL seasons, Buccaneers’ QB Tom Brady never has gone to the postseason as a wild card.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 7, 2021
While Evans isn’t a lock to play, reports out of Tampa suggest he will be on the field. That will give TB-12 a full compliment of receivers, and quite frankly an embarrassment of riches. Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski make-up arguably the best pass catching group in the NFL, and while Washington’s defense is certainly formidable, let’s not discount Brady’s motivation.
Bucs heard Chase Young 🤐 @brgridiron pic.twitter.com/JNqBbgmUNl
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 5, 2021
Last time we saw Brady in a playoff game he threw a pick-six to seal a disappointing loss. If you don’t think he wants to remove that image from the football world’s mine by going nuclear on Saturday, you haven’t been watching him closely enough.
Let’s also not discount the fact that Chase Young essentially called him out after Washington’s Week 17 win. No NFL star is more vindictive than Brady, and you can bet he’s been thinking about lighting up Young and his teammates all week.
Pick: Brady Over 2.5 Touchdown Passes (+150), 1 unit
Prop #2: J.D. McKissic Over 4.5 Receptions and 31.5 Receiving Yards
Here’s a list of running backs with more catches in 2020 than J.D. McKissic: Alvin Kamara. That’s it. That’s the list. 83% of McKissic’s receptions have come with Washington trailing, and game script is unlikely to be in their favor as big underdogs.
Most receptions by RBs in 2020:
1. Alvin Kamara – 83
2. J.D. McKissic – 80
3. Nyheim Hines – 64
4. Mike Davis – 59 pic.twitter.com/wCG5wU5Q6o
— PFF (@PFF) January 8, 2021
McKissic has a team-high 59 targets in games that Alex Smith has started this season and at least five catches in four of his last five outings. In the Football Team’s last five losses, he’s racked up the following reception and yardage totals: 8-for-77, 9-for-56, 7-for-43, 9-for-65, 6-for-43, 6-for-46 and 7-for-40. With Washington likely to be outclassed by Tampa Bay, McKissic should be in line for a big night.
Picks: McKissic Over 4.5 Receptions (-112), Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-112), 1 unit each
Buccaneers vs Washington Scoring Props
|Player||Odds to Score 1st TD||Odds to Score Any TD|
|Ronald Jones (TB)||+750||+108|
|Antonio Gibson (WAS)||+900||+145|
|Antonio Brown (TB)||+900||+140|
|Chris Godwin (TB)||+900||+140|
|Mike Evans (TB)||+900||+140|
|Rob Gronkowski (TB)||+1050||+165|
|J.D. McKissic (WAS)||+1400||+250|
|Leonard Fournette (TB)||+1400||+225|
|Terry McLaurin (WAS)||+1500||+260|
|Logan Thomas (WAS)||+1500||+260|
|Scotty Miller (WAS)||+2000||+350|
|Cam Sims (WAS)||+2500||+475|
|Tom Brady (TB)||+2800||+525|
|Peyton Barber (TB)||+3000||+525|
|Cameron Brate (TB)||+3000||+550|
|Steven Sims (WAS)||+3500||+700|
|Alex Smith (WAS)||+5500||+1100|
|Taylor Heinicke (WAS)||+5500||+1100|
Prop #3: Gronk Strikes First
We’ve already discussed how much we like Brady in this spot, but who should we pair him with to score first? Evans is a great option, providing he’s healthy, but what about TB-12’s buddy Gronk?
He’s scored three times in his last four games, and ranks second on the team in targets inside the red zone. Gronk has the most favorable first touchdown odds of any Tampa Bay pass catcher, and only Evans has more receiving TD for the Bucs this season.
Pick: Gronkowski to Score First (+1050), 0.25 units
Chris began his career at Hockey Night in Canada over 15 years ago. He has since worked at TSN for over 12 years as a writer, line-up producer, field producer, newsroom supervisor for Sportscentre, and presently as a promotions producer.