i’ve only been betting on the VP pick for a couple of weeks, but it’s certainly been a wild ride! things took a particularly interesting turn with Karen Bass when this article on Politico broke last week (6 days ago as of this writing). basically, a bunch of people in California were bad mouthing Harris and pushing Bass.
when the article broke, Bass was trading at about the
15 range, but the line quickly started moving. my first instinct (while not knowing too much about her) was that she was quite liberal and generally probably not someone who many swing voters in the mid-western election battleground states would be ecstatic to vote for. so my thought was that i would let the line move down to the
10 range, and then start betting against her before the hype died down.
the line hit
6.. and then the bottom blew out. for a moment. i layed odds the entie way, and also bet on Harris a bit since she moved from
2-ish to more than
3 while this was happening. i am sort of proud to say that i got a small bet in at the furthest limit of the run, which was
14 earlier that day!). my betfair account was completely maxed out. then i waited and wondered as i took stock of the situation: was this insider trading or something? how could people possibly think Bass would be 4 to 1 for VP nevermind 2.6 to 1? did i overlook something?
after pondering things some more and doing a few more searches for Bass related information and videos, i decided i had made the right decision. i didn’t think the pro-Bass article necessarily signified strength for Bass.. indeed it might have signaled that Biden was close to picking Harris. in any case if Bass gets picked for VP, i thought, at least the lines would move favourably on my Trump bets. so i waited a day to see what would happen. Sure enough, Bass started moving back before stabilising around the
8 range or so. huh, i thought. maybe i should just take a small profit and hedge.. after all, i had thrown bankroll management principles completely out the window by committing completely against her. after some thoughts and second thoughts, i finally ended up hedging my position at
7.83 against and
7.99 for.. a small profit, risk free.
HOWEVER, over the next few days, as more dirt came out on Bass, the line moved all the way back to
14, and then completely ran away to its current position at the
55 range. clearly, had i just held on, i could have made a lot more money on my bets. i don’t have an extensive background in betting (at least this type of betting), so i’m still unsure of whether or not i should feel too bad about hedging as soon as i did. my current reflection is that i should have simply hedged away some amount i was comfortable with rather than my entire position, which would have allowed me to profit a lot more off of the remainder of the position. regardless, i’m having a lot of fun!
would love to hear feedback from more experienced political bettors 🙂