Timeform’s three best bets in the UK on Wednesday 5 August

Timeform pick out their best back, lay and stats-based bets in the UK on Wednesday…

“…his mark has come down a long way and he could be ready to take advantage…”

Timeform on Only The Brave

Pagero – 15:20 Newton Abbot

Pagero hasn’t been seen on a racecourse since December, but he is very much one to be positive about if picking up where he left off, last seen justifying very short odds with the minimum of fuss in a handicap at Doncaster. Admittedly, this will be tougher after a 15 lb hike in the weights, but his unexposed profile suggests further progress is far from out of the question, while concerns about his absence from the track are offset by the fine form of the Jonjo O’Neill yard (five winners from last 15 runners).

Scroll for more info

Date Course/Class Pos Type Dist. Gng. HDGR WGT Jockey BSP
14/12/19 Doncaster 1/13 Hurdle 2m 128y Heavy 10st 12lbs Jonjo O’Neill Jr. 1.38
08/12/19 Huntingdon 1/15 Hurdle 2m 4f 145y Gd/sft 11st 8lbs Jonjo O’Neill Jr. 4.75
14/11/19 Taunton 8/10 Hurdle 2m 104y Gd/sft 11st 5lbs William Kennedy 11.5
17/10/19 Wincanton 8/12 Hurdle 1m 7f 65y Good 10st 9lbs Richie McLernon 15.07
08/09/19 Fontwell Park 2/8 Hurdle 2m 1f 162y Gd/frm 10st 12lbs Richie McLernon 6.63
20/04/19 Carlisle 3/7 Hurdle 2m 1f Gd/frm 10st 9lbs Richie McLernon 4.94
23/02/19 Kempton Park 11/12 Hurdle 2m Gd/frm 10st 12lbs Barry Geraghty 28.92
26/01/19 Cheltenham 7/9 Hurdle 2m 179y Gd/sft 11st 0lbs Richie McLernon 60
07/11/18 Chantilly 5/7 Flat 1m 1f 207y Gd/sft 9st 2lbs Pierre-Charles Boudot
23/10/18 Deauville 1/10 Flat 1m 1f 207y Good 9st 0lbs Alexis Badel
05/10/18 Angers 1/10 Flat 1m 2f 97y Gd/sft 9st 2lbs Gary Sanchez
13/04/18 Lyon Parilly 2/10 Flat 1m 3f 205y Gd/sft 8st 12lbs

Sweet Charity – 18:35 Lingfield

Sweet Charity was a winner a Windsor last time and is likely to be well-backed to follow up with Oisin Murphy booked again. However, her overall profile identifies her as one to be against, seemingly on the downgrade for the last couple of seasons and that being just her second career win (first since May 2018). She was all out to hold on at the line, too, and a 2 lb higher mark might be enough to anchor her this time, for all that she has been rated much higher in her prime.

Form: 703550-61

Scroll for more info

Date Course/Class Pos Type Dist. Gng. HDGR WGT Jockey BSP
06/07/20 Windsor 1/11 Flat 1m 2f Gd/frm 9st 6lbs Oisin Murphy 12
08/06/20 Lingfield Park 6/11 Flat 1m 2f Std 9st 4lbs Oisin Murphy 3.83
22/10/19 Kempton Park 10/13 Flat 1m 2f 219y Slow 9st 2lbs Jason Watson 7
24/09/19 Lingfield Park 5/14 Flat 1m 2f Std 9st 8lbs Charles Bishop 13.5
26/08/19 Epsom Downs 5/7 Flat 1m 113y Gd/frm 9st 3lbs Cieren Fallon 8.58
13/07/19 Ascot 3/8 Flat 1m Firm 8st 10lbs Charles Bishop 92.84
29/06/19 Newmarket (July) 10/10 Flat 1m 2f Good 9st 9lbs Charles Bishop 14.5
30/05/19 Sandown Park 7/11 Flat 1m 1f Gd/frm 10st 0lbs Oisin Murphy 5.9
30/04/19 Brighton 4/6 Flat 1m 1f 207y Good 8st 9lbs Jason Watson 3.25
06/04/19 Lingfield Park 3/5 Flat 1m 2f Std 8st 7lbs David Egan 7.4
19/09/18 Sandown Park 7/10 Flat 1m 1f 209y Gd/sft 9st 2lbs Tom Queally 48.2
26/07/18 Newbury 5/7 Flat 1m 2f Firm 9st 0lbs Oisin Murphy 8.86
12/07/18 Newbury 2/6 Flat 1m 2f Gd/frm 9st 0lbs Shane Kelly 3.95
12/06/18 Salisbury 4/4 Flat 1m 1f 201y Firm 8st 9lbs Fran Berry 3.1
29/05/18 Leicester 1/16 Flat 1m 2f Good 9st 4lbs Fran Berry 10
03/05/18 Lingfield Park 2/12 Flat 1m 1y Std 9st 0lbs Fran Berry 18
20/12/17 Lingfield Park 3/9 Flat 1m 1y Std 8st 11lbs Fran Berry 5.46
21/11/17 Lingfield Park 3/11 Flat 1m 1y Std 8st 11lbs Fran Berry 31.29

Smart Stat
Only The Brave – 18:10 Ayr

Β£23.65 – Archie Watson’s profit to a Β£1 level stake with horses running after a break

Archie Watson is well capable of readyine one after a break, while he also has an excellent record with his recruits from other yards, all of which points to a big run in the finale at Ayr from stable debutant Only The Brave. Formerly trained in Ireland by Sarah Lynam, he hasn’t won since September 2018 and was comfortably held when last seen at Dundalk in January. Nevertheless, his mark has come down a long way as a result, and he could be ready to take advantage if revitalised by the switch of yards, with the blinkers also going back on today.

Form: 15/07020-7

Scroll for more info

Date Course/Class Pos Type Dist. Gng. HDGR WGT Jockey BSP
17/01/20 Dundalk 7/14 Flat 1m Slow 9st 8lbs S. M. Crosse 12
13/12/19 Dundalk 10/13 Flat 1m Slow 9st 8lbs D. E. Sheehy 14.38
29/11/19 Dundalk 2/14 Flat 1m Slow 9st 5lbs W. M. Lordan 28
01/06/19 Navan 12/18 Flat 1m Good B 9st 3lbs D. E. Sheehy 22
28/04/19 Navan 7/16 Flat 1m 2f Gd/sft B 8st 5lbs D. E. Sheehy 54.74
20/04/19 Cork 13/18 Flat 1m 100y Gd/sft 0 9st 2lbs D. E. Sheehy 74.91
27/10/18 Leopardstown 5/11 Flat 7f Good B 8st 4lbs D. E. Sheehy 16.01
24/09/18 Fairyhouse 1/12 Flat 7f Gd/sft 0 8st 9lbs D. E. Sheehy 3.88
07/09/18 Down Royal 4/11 Flat 7f Gd/sft 9st 9lbs D. E. Sheehy 6.6
25/08/18 Curragh 4/9 Flat 6f Good 9st 2lbs D. E. Sheehy 13.55
31/07/18 Galway 4/13 Flat 7f Soft 9st 0lbs W. M. Lordan 110
08/07/18 Fairyhouse 4/7 Flat 6f Good 9st 0lbs R. P. Downey 186.87
27/06/18 Naas 10/16 Flat 6f Gd/frm 9st 0lbs R. P. Downey 480.67