Tips for every fixture of GW22


Wolfsburg to keep up unbeaten run

Arminia Bielefeld v Wolfsburg
Friday, 19:30
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Arminia should be going into this game with high spirits, having taken a point from their trip to Munich last weekend, but manager Uwe Neuhaus would surely have preferred a different opponent. Wolfsburg’s first win of the season came in the reverse fixture, propelling them to a run of four wins from five which has turned into a full-blown crack at the top four. The hosts are averaging just 0.74 xGF at home, and Infogol anticipates an away win.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.208/1

Bayern to sneak victory in Frankfurt

Eintracht Frankfurt v Bayern Munich
Saturday, 14:30
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Bayern Munich are one of just two teams to beat Eintracht this season, winning 5-0 back in October, and this may be the best possible time for the hosts to claim revenge. Adi Hütter’s team have won eight of their last nine, and take on a Bayern side with a Champions League clash on the horizon, but Infogol’s model still favours the champions to become the first visiting side to win at Deutsche Bank Park this term.

Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Stuttgart to recover away form

Köln v Stuttgart
Saturday, 14:30
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Stuttgart have nearly twice as many points away as they do at home, but have lost their last three on the road despite creating a fair amount of chances. They should have the goods to return to winning ways against a Köln side averaging 1.6 xGA at RheinEnergieStadion, with Infogol’s model backing the away win while offering a 57% chance of both sides finding the net.

Back the 1-2 @ 10.009/1

Freiburg to prolong Union’s misery

Freiburg v Union Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Union Berlin continue to struggle for goals, drawing a blank against Schalke last weekend despite dominating on the xG front to make it two goals from five winless games. A trip to Freiburg isn’t expected to change that, with the hosts narrow favourites to prevail based on Infogol’s model. Last season’s corresponding game ended 3-1 to the hosts, but we may be in for fewer goals this term.

Back the 2-0 @ 14.0013/1

Gladbach to return to winning ways

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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Gladbach take to the field for the first time since the club confirmed manager Marco Rose will join Borussia Dortmund next season, and last season’s fourth place finishers have plenty of work to do in the meantime. Manchester City await in the Champions League on Wednesday, and Rose’s men will want to avoid going into that game with a three-game winless run. Fortunately for them, opponents Mainz ought to be beatable, having allowed 1.99 xGA away from home, where they have won just once this season.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

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Dortmund to complete Revierderby double

Schalke v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30
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Dortmund were forced to be patient at home to Schalke before scoring three second half goals, and Infogol’s model anticipates a similar result at Veltins-Arena. Schalke have the league’s worst home record, with an xGA of 1.95 per game playing its part, and Edin Terzić’s side are coming off the double boost of a Champions League win in Seville and the announcement of a new manager for the 2020/21 season.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.008/1

Leverkusen to keep pace with top four

Augsburg v Bayer Leverkusen
Sunday, 12:30
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Three straight defeats mean Augsburg can’t relax in the relegation battle, and three could well become four against a Leverkusen side pushing to rejoin the top four after narrowly missing out last season. Peter Bosz’s side have been tough to break down on the road, allowing just 1.03 xGA per game, and Augsburg’s home xGA – the joint-worst in the league – should give the visitors enough opportunities to claim an important three points.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.6015/2

Leipzig to return to winning ways after European woe

Hertha Berlin v RB Leipzig
Sunday, 14:30
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RB Leipzig’s meeting with Liverpool in midweek was closer than the 2-0 scoreline suggests, and Julian Nagelsmann’s men might not need to do a great deal differently to beat a Hertha side which conceded a late penalty winner at Red Bull Arena back in October. Pál Dárdai led the side from the capital to a point last week, but Infogol gives Die Roten Bullen a 55% chance of earning a win and cementing their second place in the Bundesliga table.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.207/1

Home win to take Hoffenheim above Werder

Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen
Sunday, 17:00
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Two sides with identical points totals meet at PreZero Arena, and Hoffenheim will hope to use their home advantage to build on a good point at Dortmund last time out. The reverse fixture ended all square, but Sebastian Hoeneß will hope a season-long xGF of 1.67 per game can prevail over a similar xGA return and see the hosts justify their 55% chance of victory based on Infogol’s model.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1

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