Tips for every fixture of GW22


Abelardo to earn first Alavés win

Alavés v Real Valladolid
Friday, 20:00
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Last week saw Abelardo pick up the first point of his second spell in the Alavés dugout, with a dismal game at Getafe’s Coliseum ending scoreless, and the 50-year-old will be hopeful of following that up with a maiden win. His team takes on a Valladolid side averaging 1.54 xGA per game on the road, and just one point separates these two teams going into Friday night’s game.

Back the 2-0 @ 14.0013/1

Levante to pick off Granada after visitors’ cup exertions

Levante v Granada
Saturday, 13:00
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Granada will need to make a speedy recovery after throwing away a late two-goal lead against Barcelona in the Copa del Rey, with the Catalan side winning 5-3 after extra time on Wednesday, and an in-form Levante will go into the game with confidence after three straight wins in all competitions. The visitors have the worst away xGA in La Liga, suggesting the hosts can build on their win away to Real Madrid last weekend.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Madrid to get season back on track away to Huesca

Huesca v Real Madrid
Saturday, 15:15
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Real Madrid have dropped to third in the league, having already dropped out of the cup against lower-league opposition, but their away record remains on a par with runaway league leaders Atlético. The champions travel to face basement side Huesca, who kept their survival hopes alive via Rafa Mir’s hat-trick at Valladolid last weekend, but Infogol’s model expects this to go the way of Zinedine Zidane’s side.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.4015/2

Villarreal to comfortably see off Elche

Elche v Villarreal
Saturday, 17:30
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Elche have struggled at home this season, winning just once and allowing 2 xGA per game, and Infogol’s model doesn’t expect this to change against Villarreal. The visitors sit fifth in the table, and no longer have to worry about domestic cup distractions following a midweek defeat to Levante, so they should be confident of improving on December’s goalless draw against the same opponents.

Back the 0-2 @ 6.6011/2

Sevilla to keep Madrid and Barça sweating

Sevilla v Getafe
Saturday, 20:00
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A run of three straight victories sees Sevilla go into this weekend’s games just a point behind Spanish football’s traditional giants, and the Copa del Rey semi-finalists have averaged 1.78 xGF across those three games. While their defensive solidity hasn’t quite been there, the visit of low-scoring Getafe to Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán is unlikely to cause Julen Lopetegui’s team too many problems.

Back the 2-0 @ 7.006/1

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Real Sociedad to earn first league win of 2021

Real Sociedad v Cádiz
Sunday, 13:00
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While last week’s trip to Villarreal brought a fourth winless league game for Real Sociedad, Imanol Alguacil’s team will have been buoyed by Alexander Isak’s stoppage-time equaliser. They can carry that momentum into a home meeting with a Cádiz side coming off three winless games of their own, during which they have shipped nine goals from an average of 2.21 xGA per match.

Back the 2-0 @ 6.005/1

Athletic to dismiss Valencia for seventh home win

Athletic Bilbao v Valencia
Sunday, 15:15
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Athletic have the worst away record in the division, with just six points on the road, but six home wins means and just 0.87 xGA per game at San Mamés means they go into this game a point clear of Valencia. The away side lost their last two on the road – including a cup exit against Sevilla – and Infogol’s model backs the hosts against a team who gave them a rare away point in December.

Back the 2-0 @ 9.809/1

Osasuna to prevail in six-pointer

Osasuna v Eibar
Sunday, 17:30
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Just four points separate the entire bottom six ahead of this weekend’s fixtures, and one of those games sees Osasuna host Eibar at El Sadar. Jagoba’s Arrasate have been better than their league position suggests, sitting ninth in Infogol’s xG table but 17th in the real world, and will feel they’re capable of building on a 3-1 win over Granada in their last home game.

Back the 2-0 @ 12.0011/1

Barça to stop Betis’ unbeaten run

Real Betis v Barcelona
Sunday, 20:00
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Real Betis have been flying since the turn of the year, picking up 11 points from a possible 15, but this week’s opponents have a maximum 15. Barça put five past Manuel Pellegrini’s team in the reverse fixture, helped by Aïssa Mandi’s red card, and Infogol gives the visitors a 59% chance of doing the double over the team from Seville despite having to play 120 cup minutes in midweek.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.4015/2

Atléti to keep on marching with home win

Atlético Madrid v Celta Vigo
Monday, 20:00
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Diego Simeone’s team go into this weekend 10 points clear at the top, and the visit of a Celta side without a win in 2021 is unlikely to change that. Infogol’s model backs the hosts to earn a ninth straight league victory, after goals from Luis Suárez and Yannick Carrasco gave the team from the capital all three points in the reverse fixture back in the autumn.

Back the 2-0 @ 7.6013/2

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