Tips for every fixture of GW25


Spezia to pull away from Benevento with home win

Spezia v Benevento
Saturday, 14:00
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Both Spezia and Benevento are perilously close to the drop zone, and the two clubs will have earmarked this meeting as a potential source of three points. A 3-0 win at Ciro Vigorito was Spezia’s biggest win all season, and Infogol backs them to complete the double against a visiting side averaging just 0.49 xGF per game across their last six in the league.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Udinese to keep Sassuolo at bay

Udinese v Sassuolo
Saturday, 17:00
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A point at the San Siro extended Udinese’s unbeaten run to three, but their usually solid defence will come under pressure from a Sassuolo outfit averaging 2.32 xGF across their last three games. Infogol’s model still anticipates a home win, though, and a goalless reverse fixture might be enough to convince the hosts they can keep their free-scoring opponents at bay again.

Back the 2-0 @ 13.50

Juve to dent Lazio’s top four hopes

Juventus v Lazio
Saturday, 19:45
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Defeat in Turin on Saturday could leave Lazio a full nine points adrift of the top four come the end of the gameweek, surely marking the final nail in the coffin of their Champions League charge. A Cristiano Ronaldo double gave Juve the points in the corresponding fixture last season, and according to Infogol’s model there is a 64% chance of the champions repeating the trick to strengthen their lead over Simone Inzaghi’s side.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Roma to return to winning ways at the Olimpico

Roma v Genoa
Sunday, 11:30
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A solid display in Florence was enough for Roma to rebound from a rare home defeat, and Paulo Fonseca’s team should be able to look forward to another three points on their return to the capital. Visitors Genoa have improved of late, but an away average of 0.88 xGF per game suggests they’re unlikely to cause too many problems for one of the division’s best home records.

Back the 3-0 @ 11.0010/1

Cosmi to mark Crotone home bow with a defeat

Crotone v Torino
Sunday, 14:00
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Veteran manager Serse Cosmi has returned to Serve A, replacing Giovanni Stroppa at Crotone, and his first home task is to take something from a meeting with in-form Torino. The visitors have not played in two game weeks due to a Covid outbreak, but the six games before that disruption brought one win, five draws and an average of just 1.03 xGA per game. According to Infogol’s model, they should have enough to pip the league’s bottom side.

Back the 0-2 @ 9.809/1

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Fiorentina to stabilise with home win

Fiorentina v Parma
Sunday, 14:00
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Some 19 of Fiorentina’s 25 points have come at Artemio Franchi, and they will feel they can add to that tally by beating a Parma side against whom they are unbeaten in their last three Serie A meetings. The visitors are averaging just 0.82 xGF away from home, although two first half goals in their last road game means Cesare Prandelli’s hosts will need to be careful.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.4017/2

Milan to preserve league’s best away record

Verona v AC Milan
Sunday, 14:00
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With eight points from their last four games and a relatively solid xG foundation behind those results, Verona will be no pushovers for Milan. However, with a league-leading 10 away wins, Stefano Pioli’s team will be hopeful they can repeat last season’s victory at Marc’Antonio Bentegodi. Infogol favours the visitors in what looks poised to be a tight game, with both sides expected to find the net.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Sampdoria to put a pin in Cagliari revival

Sampdoria v Cagliari
Sunday, 17:00
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Back-to-back wins have given Cagliari hope of survival, but Infogol’s model expects the winning run to come to an end at Luigi Ferraris on Sunday. An away average of 1.93 xGA per game is the third worst in the league, and while the reverse fixture went the way of the Sardinians, they needed the first-half dismissal of Samp’s Tommaso Augello to hand them an advantage which they can’t rely on receiving again.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

Napoli to keep up European hopes

Napoli v Bologna
Sunday, 19:45
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A victory over Lazio and defeat to Cagliari is a reflection of Bologna’s erratic form this season, and this means it’s impossible to totally rule them out at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. However, Napoli’s solid home form suggests they’ll have the goods to complete a league double over Siniลกa Mihajloviฤ‡’s men, after Victor Osimhen’s first-half goal made the difference at Renato Dall’Ara in November,

Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2

Inter to emerge victorious against Atalanta

Inter Milan v Atalanta
Monday, 19:45
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A home meeting with Atalanta represents one of the tougher remaining tests in Inter’s title challenge: Robin Gosens’ goal secured a point for the visitors in last season’s corresponding fixture, while Gian Piero Gasperini’s side have won their last four league games with an average of 1.96 xGF. Nonetheless, Infogol expects the league leaders to prevail, even if they have to call on every ounce of their attacking and defensive reserves.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

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