Tips for every fixture of GW27


Lazio to keep pressure on those above them

Lazio v Crotone
Friday, 14:00
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Lazio’s European hopes were dealt a further blow last week as they failed to take anything from a trip to Juventus’ Allianz Stadium, and they’ll need to have their wits about them against a Crotone side coming off a first win in eight. The reverse fixture ended 2-0 to the side from the capital, though, and Infogol’s model anticipates a home win to keep Serse Cosmi’s visitors bottom of the table.

Back the 2-1 @ 10.009/1

Atalanta to remain in top four contention with win

Atalanta v Spezia
Friday, 19:45
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Despite Monday’s reverse against Inter, Atalanta have a fighting chance of fourth spot – or even higher – if they can return to winning ways against Spezia. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side are averaging 2.16 xGF per game at home, with only two clubs boasting better, and will fancy their chances against a Spezia side whose solid away points record betrays the worst xGA numbers in the division.

Back the 3-0 @ 9.4017/2

Sassuolo to take the points in top-half clash

Sassuolo v Verona
Saturday, 14:00
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Sassuolo and Verona are both on course to finish in the top half of the table after steady seasons, and the hosts can reinforce that status with a win at Mapei Stadium. Roberto De Zerbi’s team have averaged 1.71 xGF across their last three at home, an improvement on earlier in the campaign, and Infogol expects them to earn just their fourth home victory of the campaign against a Verona side who have not created a great deal away from home this term.

Back the 2-0 @ 14.50

Benevento’s home form to cost them against Fiorentina

Benevento v Fiorentina
Saturday, 17:00
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Daniele Verde’s equaliser for Spezia last week ensured Benevento are now two months without a league victory, and a home xGA average of 1.8 per game will worry them as they chase a win which would help ease relegation worries. Visitors Fiorentina haven’t been great on the road, but Infogol’s model still gives Cesare Prandelli’s men the upper hand ahead of the meeting at Ciro Vigorito.

Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Udinese to deny Genoa at Luigi Ferraris

Genoa v Udinese
Saturday, 19:45
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Udinese’s win last weekend made it four without defeat, and the run has been built on defensive solidity. Infogol expects this to continue serving them will in Genoa, as they take on opponents averaging just 1.03 xGF per game at home, with the visitors backed to complete a league double against Davide Ballardini’s men after a 1-0 win at Friuli back in November.

Back the 0-2 @ 11.5021/2

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Bologna to put any lingering relegation fears to bed

Bologna v Sampdoria
Sunday, 11:30
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Back-to-back league defeats with uninspiring xGF returns have left Bologna on 28 points, meaning there’s still some work to be done to make sure of another season of Serie A football, but a win against Sampdoria ought to put SiniΕ‘a MihajloviΔ‡’s mind at ease. Infogol’s model expects the hosts to take three points from a fixture which ended 2-1 last season, taking them within a point of Samp in the process.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.6017/2

Another home chance to come and go for Parma

Parma v Roma
Sunday, 14:00
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Parma go into this weekend six points from safety, but a much-needed victory at Ennio Tardini is unlikely to arrive if Infogol’s model is anything to go by. Roberto D’Aversa’s team have averaged 1.88 xGA across their last three home games, and a Roma side with one of the league’s stingiest away defences in xG terms look unlikely to give them a great deal to work with.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.6015/2

Inter to keep Torino in trouble

Torino v Inter Milan
Sunday, 14:00
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Torino’s loss at Crotone last weekend dealt a blow to their survival hopes, and while their fate remains in their own hands, the visit of the league leaders is anything but welcome. Inter won the corresponding game 3-0 last season, and Infogol’s model expects them to extend their current league run to eight straight wins and complete a double after coming from behind against the same opposition back in November with four goals in the final half-hour.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.6015/2

Juve to rebound from European pain

Cagliari v Juventus
Sunday, 17:00
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After a frustrating extra-time defeat to Porto in midweek, Juventus know the only way they’ll be playing Champions League football next season is by preserving their precarious top four berth. Things won’t be easy against a Cagliari side who have got their mojo back under Leonardo Semplici, averaging just 0.84 xGA across their last six games under two managers, but Infogol expects the visitors to come out on top.

Back the 1-2 @ 8.4015/2

Milan to stay in title contention with win over Napoli

AC Milan v Napoli
Sunday, 19:45
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A six-point gap to league leaders Inter will become more daunting as the season goes on and Milan run out of games to catch up, but a failure to beat Napoli on Sunday night would surely be game over for the early-season pace-setters. That’s not something Infogol’s model anticipates, though, with Stefano Pioli’s side given a 42% chance of a victory which would make it five unbeaten against these opponents in Serie A.

Back the 2-1 @ 9.809/1

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