Torino vs Roma, Atalanta vs Juventus & More


Serie A Matchday 31

Atalanta’s head coach Gian Piero Gasperini, center, cheers Atalanta’s Luis Muriel during the Champions League, round of 16, first leg soccer match between Atlanta and Real Madrid, at the Gewiss Stadium in Bergamo, Wednesday, Feb. 24, 2021. (AP Photo/Luca Bruno)

  • Serie A Matchday 31 features two huge clashes between Atalanta vs Juventus and Napoli vs Inter Milan
  • Only Inter Milan has collected more points than Atalanta over the past five, ten and 20 rounds
  • Read on for the odds and our best bets from Serie A Matchday 31 here

Italy’s Serie A Matchday 31 gets rolling this weekend with two matches at 9:00 am EST Saturday morning. After two afternoon matches, six more will kick off on Sunday.

Sunday’s action will be feature two top-of-table matches between third and fourth-place Juventus and Atlanta, as well as fifth-place Napoli hosting title leaders Inter Milan who are riding 11 and 14-match winning and undefeated streaks respectively. Inter are also 20-2-1 in their past 23.

There’s a quick turnaround in Italy in the coming week with Round 32 beginning on Tuesday with Verona hosting Fiorentina.

Let’s look ahead to the odds and best bets from the Serie A Matchday 31 schedule below.

Serie A Matchday 31 Odds

Matchup Home Draw Away
Crotone vs Udinese +320 +255 -113
Sampdoria vs Verona +155 +230 +175
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina +150 +215 +195
Cagliari vs Parma +125 +235 +220
AC Milan vs Genoa -215 +350 +575
Atalanta vs Juventus +148 +255 +170
Bologna vs Spezia -103 +265 +265
Lazio vs Benevento -250 +375 +700
Torino vs Roma +235 +255 +112
Napoli vs Inter Milan +200 +245 +133

Odds as of April 16 at DraftKings

Sassuolo vs Fiorentina Prediction

Eighth-place Sassuolo are hosting 15th-placed Fiorentina at 12:00 pm EST Saturday afternoon on Serie A Matchday 31.

At first brush, Sassuolo may look like the play. However, their higher position in the table came on the back of a strong start to the season. Across all competitions, they have just three wins in their past 15 matches. Those wins came against Benevento on Monday, 1-0, Verona 3-2 and Crotone 2-1. Two of those are promoted sides. Expand this out to their past seven wins, and they’ve also beaten Genoa, Sampdoria, as well as Benevento and Verona again.

These are all sides ranked ninth or lower in the table. The Neroverdi are basically in no man’s land right now. Sitting 12 points back of a Europa League spot, there’s little chance they make up ground with just eight matches to go.

The match could mean a little more for Fiorentina, as they currently look safe from relegation, eight points above Cagliari, but they’ll certainly want to add a little more distance between themselves and a potential drop.

Sassuolo’s 1-0 win over Benevento, was a rare occasion where both teams didn’t score in a Sassuolo match. In 17 of their previous 18 matches, both found the back of the net. In 13/18 both teams scored and at least three goals were scored.

The story is similar with Fiorentina’s recent results. They have just one win in seven and two in 11. Both teams have scored in each of their past six after last weekend’s 3-2 loss versus Atalanta. OVERs have also cashed in seven of nine.

Sassuolo will hold the possession and likely create plenty of chances in this match. They have the highest average possession in the league at 60.2-percent compared to Fiorentina’s 48.8-percent. Their expected goals (xG) are 44.8 compared to Fiorentina’s 36.9. However, their offense will be limited with Domenico Berardi and Francesco Caputo ruled out.

Previous meetings saw the teams draw 1-1 earlier this year and both win on the road last season, Sassuolo 3-1 and Fiorentina 2-1.

I think both score (-190), but also think it’s hard to split these two right now, which brings the draw into play.

Pick: Draw +215

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Atalanta vs Juventus Prediction

Few teams have been in as strong of form as Atalanta. Over the past five, ten and 20 league matches, only Inter Milan has collected more points than La Dea.

Atalanta are fourth with 61 points and will be looking to stay in the top four, while also hoping to leapfrog Juventus (62 points) and AC Milan (63 points) who are above them in the table. They’ll host Juventus at 9:00 am EST Sunday morning in Serie A Matchday 31.

La Dea’s 3-2 win over Fiorentina last round was their fourth-straight. They also scored multiple goals in each of those wins. Across their past ten matches, they’re 8-1-1 and have outscored opponents 25-12. Their lone defeat came away to Inter, 1-0.

Juve too has been in fine form of late, Champions League departure notwithstanding. In Serie A they have just a single defeat in nine and are 6-2-1 (WDL) in that stretch. In seven of those matches, they’ve scored multiple goals. And while Juve has allowed less than a goal-per-game average on the season as a whole, their defense has proven shaky in conceding a goal in eight of their past ten. Only four times though all season have they conceded multiple goals in a match.

Both teams will have plenty of attacking firepower for this one. Ronaldo has scored in three of four matches for Juventus. Luis Muriel has four goals in five matches for Atalanta and leads the league by a wide margin in goals/90 at 1.49. Next in line is Milan’s Zlatan Ibrahimovic at 1.01 and Ronaldo at 0.99. Duvan Zapata is coming off a brace versus Fiorentina and has four goals in his last three matches as well.

Comparing several key stats there’s little between these sides. They both rank top-four in goals, expected goals, expected goals allowed, average possession, shots, shots on target and attacking third touches.

I definitely see both teams finding the back of the net in this one, but trying to separate the two seems more difficult. Neither are going to catch Inter at this point, but both could be satisfied with taking a single point as they hope to stay above fifth-place Lazio. Therefore a draw (+255), or for more value a scored draw (+310) is my bet.

Pick: Draw + both teams to score (+310)

Torino vs Roma Prediction

Torino put some space between themselves and the relegation zone with a 1-0 win over Udinese last week. They’re still in 17th, but hold a five-point lead over 18th-placed Cagliari. El Toro will look to at least maintain that lead when they host seventh-place Roma at 12:00 pm EST Sunday afternoon.

It’s an important match for Roma as well, who are just outside of the European places for next year. They trail Lazio in sixth for the Europa League by one point.

Roma played in the Europa League Thursday and played out a 1-1 draw with Ajax, advancing to the semifinals on aggregate.

Only twice in the past 19 head-to-heads between Torino and Roma have fewer than at least two goals been scored. Both of those were 1-0 results. The high-scoring nature of this matchup was on display earlier this season with Roma winning 3-1 at home. Last season both teams won on the road, Roma 3-2 and Torino 2-0.

These teams have also not drawn a match since 2015. Home teams are 6-0-5 since, so playing at home has meant relatively little in this matchup.

Both of these teams play most of their matches to the OVER, with Roma being 20-10 to OVER 2.5 totals and Torino 17-12. Roma’s matches average 3.3 goals per game, while Torino’s average 3.2.

Roma kept a rare clean sheet last week in their 1-0 home win over Bologna, however, on the road, they’ve kept their opponents scoreless just once in the past 12. That came to newcomers Benevento in a 0-0 draw. Keeping a clean sheet to Torino, whose offense is lead by Andrea Belotti, will be difficult. Belotti has 12 goals on the year and ranks tenth overall in xG at 11.0.

Torino’s home form is curious though. On the whole, they have collected the fewest points, with a 1-8-5 (WDL) record. That equals Parma with only 11 home points on the season. But, they have just a single win or loss at home in their past eight at home. In their past 11, they have drawn eight times. Take out that one home win to Sassuolo on March 21 and their next most recent home win was way back last season in July.

Roma is clearly the better side, but Torino will be most rested given Roma’s Europa League match in midweek. I see goals in this one and will back both scoring and at least three total.

Pick: Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals (-120 Bet365)