Trump Fades to +1000 to Win 2024 GOP Nomination; Pence, Haley Co-Favorites

Trump on a debate stage

“Why not me?” Donald Trump may be asking right now when it comes to the 2024 GOP nomination. “A lot of reasons,” replies everybody. Photo by Gage Skidmore (wikimedia commons).

  • President Trump’s odds to earn the 2024 Republican presidential nomination have faded to +1000
  • Vice President Mike Pence and former U.S. Ambassador to the  the United Nations Nikki Haley are co-favorites to earn the GOP nod at +350
  • Read below for analysis on future US Presidential Election odds

With Joe Biden now projected to be the 46th President of the United States, it’s time to look ahead to 2024 for the GOP. Sure, President Trump has vowed to fight vote totals in various battleground states via numerous lawsuits, the reality is clear: his presidency is coming to an end.

The current Commander-in-Chief is now a +1000 longshot to earn the Republican presidential nomination in four years. This, after Trump was the favorite only four days prior to Election Day. Now, Vice President Mike Pence and former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley are co-favorites to earn the 2024 GOP nod at +350.

2024 Republican Nominee Odds

Candidate Odds
Mike Pence +350
Nikki Haley +350
John Kasich +800
Josh Hawley +800
Ted Cruz +800
Donald Trump Sr. +1000
Tim Scott +1200
Tom Cotton +1200
Dan Crenshaw +1400
Donald Trump Jr. +1600
Paul Ryan +2000
Kristi Noem +2500
Candace Owens +3300
Mitt Romney +3300
Jared Kushner +4000
Rand Paul +4000
Ron DeSantis +4000
Condoleezza Rice +5000
Mike Pompeo +5000
Lindsey Graham +6000
Jeff Flake +6600
Tommy Tuberville +6600
Charlie Baker +7500
Greg Abbott +7500
George W. Bush +8000
Kayleigh McEnany +10000

Odds as of Nov. 6.

As I noted earlier this week, Trump’s viability as a nominee is problematic for numerous reasons. The presidential election odds were a roller-coaster for both Biden and Trump over the last couple years.

We now look ahead to mid-2023, when the next presidential campaign begins to heat up.


The Republican National Committee is going to have to ask itself whether or not its done with the Trump family.

While Steele, a former head of the RNC, doesn’t speak for the current complexion of the group, that’s a damning tweet. It’s a reference to the Southern District of New York court’s ongoing investigation into Trump.

Meantime, while Pennsylvania and its 20 projected electoral votes clinched Biden’s President-Elect status, Trump was playing 18.

There’s no doubt Trump has considerable clout. But I’m fading him at +1000 and his son at +1600.  I’m also fading the notion there’s a comeback brewing.

Kamala Harris Opens as +250 Favorite to Win Democratic Nomination in 2024; Biden a Distant Second at +700

All Haley the Chief?

While he’s not part of the family, Pence is — and will always be — tied to Trump. For that very reason, I’m also fading his 2024 favorite status. Yes, the now-lame duck Vice President appeals to a conservative base. But, as former Democratic Party candidate Pete Buttigieg eviscerated him — on none other than Fox News — recently, there’s simply too much baggage to take any future presidential campaign by the former Indiana governor seriously.

But another former governor from a red state’s candidacy is very legit.

The former leader of South Carolina sent her congrats to 2024 sleeper Crenshaw on his congressional win Tuesday. But that photo could easily be the 2024 Republican ticket.

Haley sought lower taxes while governor and has been outspoken about the war on terror during her time in the U.N., while also being against a Muslim ban. Throw in the fact she’s of Indian descent, like Vice President-Elect Kamala Harris, and Haley checks off numerous boxes. She’s a worthy favorite.

Investment Opportunity

If you’re looking for a true longshot that has a decent shot to the earn the 2024 GOP nod, look no further than Rice.

The former Secretary of State has yet to show any interest in making a run for the White House. But she’s exactly the type of candidate that many independents and moderate Democrats could vote for.

Even though 2024 seems far away, there are already solid possibilities on the GOP side to consider.

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Blair Johnson