Trump Saying “Sleepy Joe” Is at a Generous +150

Donald Trump at a rally

Will Donald Trump say some of his favorites next week like ‘rigged’, ‘hoax’ and ‘witch hunt’? Photo by Gage Skidmore (Wikimedia).

  • The Republican National Convention will take place from August 24-27 at the Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
  • Trump has slightly narrowed the gap on former Vice President Joe Biden in some national polls
  • What will and won’t the main speakers say at the convention?

Now that the Democratic National Convention is in the rearview mirror, the focus will now shift to the Republican National Convention next week. After a number of celebrities and former Presidents stepped up for former Vice President Joe Biden, we’re going to see a very different cast at the Republican convention.

Sportsbooks have all sorts of other 2020 Election odds but they’ve now posted a whole host of props on what will and won’t be said at the convention. Let’s take a look at the odds on the board and see if there’s some value.

2020 Republican National Convention Odds

Speaker Word/Phrase Odds It Will Be Said Odds It Will Not Be Said
Mark or Patricia McCloskey 2nd Amendment -400 +250
Mark or Patricia McCloskey All Lives Matter -275 +185
Any Speaker Mount Rushmore -155 +115
Donald Trump China Virus -400 +250
Donald Trump Fake News -130 -110
Donald Trump Goodyear -300 +200
Donald Trump Hoax -175 +135
Nicholas Sandmann Nathan Phillips -250 +170
Donald Trump Rigged -150 +110
Donald Trump Sleepy Joe -200 +150
Donald Trump Witch Hunt -200 +150

Odds as of August 21.

Will Mark or Patricia McCloskey Mention the Second Amendment

The McCloskeys were thrust into the national spotlight in July when a Black Lives Matter protest rolled through their neighborhood. Although the protestors were heading to the mayor’s house, they broke through a fence on the McCloskey’s property and lingered around their home.

That’s when the McCloskey’s came out with guns.

Both have since been charged with waving guns at protesters and had their home raided by police to claim the weapons. This has become a political storm as the left-wing side of it thinks the McCloskeys are in the wrong while the right-wing side feels like they did were justly protecting their property.

Given what Biden has said about guns (that he plans to take assault rifles away) and given that the McCloskeys were protecting their property in a time of huge civil unrest, it’s likely that the second amendment is going to come up during their talk.

The -400 odds seem generous here as this is the central point of their story.

Will “Sleepy Joe” Be Said by President Trump?

There looks like there’s some good value on the board with a lot of the Trump props as all of his favorites are listed. Surprisingly, the odds aren’t that pricey on a lot of them. “Rigged” is at -150 to appear and that seems like a lock. “Fake news” is at -130 and “China virus” is at -400. “Rigged” and “fake news” look like solid bets.

The one that I like the most is “Sleepy Joe”, which is at +150 for “yes”. With things like “witch hunt” and “rigged” and “fake news”, there’s a small chance they don’t appear if Trump tries to stay positive and focus on his plan for the next four years. Maybe he’ll try to offer a slightly more positive tone.

At the same time, given that Biden took direct shots at Trump during his speech, I have a hard time envisioning Trump letting that go. At +150, I’ll put money on “yes”.

Will “Mount Rushmore” Be Said by Any Official Speaker?

I’m not a huge fan of this one as I don’t think this is a major focal point in any scenario. Trump supporters love their president but even they don’t have a hankering for his face being added to Mount Rushmore. Given that it’s only +115 on “yes”, I’d opt to pass on this prop entirely.

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David Golokhov

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