Trump’s Reelection Odds Fade Back to +170; Is It a Good Time to Buy Low?

Donald Trump looking to his right

Donald Trump’s reelection bid is in dire straits if the polls are correct. Photo by The Epoch Times (flickr).

  • The 2020 Presidential Election will take place on Tuesday, November 3rd
  • Donald Trump’s reelection odds have bounced from +184 to +139 to +170 over the past two weeks
  • FiveThirtyEight says that Biden has an 87% chance of winning the 2020 Election.

Nine days until the 2020 presidential election in the United States of America, former Vice President Joe Biden is a sizable -207 favorite to win, while incumbent President Donald Trump is looking at average odds of +170.

Where is there value on the board with these two as Election Day approaches?

2020 US Presidential Election Odds Top Contenders

Candidate  Odds
Joe Biden -207
Donald Trump +170

Odds as of Oct 25th, 2020.

Odds Have Bounced Around

Over the last few weeks, the 2020 election odds have made notable jumps. Biden’s odds were as long as -166 and as short as -221. With Trump, he’s been as long as +184 and as short as +139. The polls indicate that Biden is virtually a sure thing but a lot of people feel 2020 is eerily similar to 2016, which brought an election-night surprise.

Polls Show Biden In Complete Control

Traditionally, polls are what people trust when it comes to elections but they were off enough in 2016 that nobody is quite sure if they’re accurate this time around. If they are accurate, Biden should roll in a landslide. He leads by eight points nationally, according to the RealClearPolitics national average of polls.

Beyond that, Biden leads by 3.8 points in the battleground states and appears to be competitive – or leading – in a number of states that are traditionally Republican strongholds. Biden is up in Georgia and is neck-in-neck in Texas. If these states are toss-ups, Trump will have no shot on November 3rd.

How Accurate Are The Polls?

There could be a number of issues with the polls as no one is quite certain where there is, in fact, a “silent majority”. Trump supporters tend to hide their endorsement when polled or asked by friends, so support could be stronger than polls indicate. Also, polls don’t take into account enthusiasm.

The good news for Biden is that early voting has broken the marks set in 2016. The early indication is that Democrats lead in that regard whereas, at this point in 2016, Republicans had a slight advantage.

What’s The Best Bet?

It doesn’t feel like there’s much value with Biden at this point but it does look like he’s heading for a win. The question is, do you want to lay a -207 bet to back our polling system? Going by FiveThirtyEight, which normally does a good job of crunching the numbers, Biden has an 87% chance to win. That means at -207 (67.43% implied probability), there might be a bit of value.

Personally, it feels like the value has been sucked out of this line but if you feel the polls are right, there’s value with Biden. If you feel they once again are broken and inaccurate, there’s great value with Trump.

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David Golokhov

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