Israel Adesanya reacts after defeating Derek Brunson during the first round of a middleweight mixed martial arts bout at UFC 230, Saturday, Nov. 3, 2018, at Madison Square Garden in New York. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)
- Israel Adesanya looks to become a champ-champ against Jan Blachowicz in UFC 259 on Saturday, March 6th, 2021
- Adesanya is a -230 favorite, so can you find better value on him with a prop bet?
- Aside from the betting line, here are a handful of props that hold value
Israel Adesanya can join an exclusive club on Saturday night as he looks to become the latest champ-champ in the UFC as he moves up to light heavyweight to fight Jan Blachowicz. Adesanya is a -230 favorite to win outright, but there is better value in the UFC 259 props to make a little extra dough.
We’ve already broken down the full main card and found some value on a few fighters. However, there are several UFC 259 props I like to cash on Saturday night in Las Vegas.
Total Rounds Odds
|Matchup||Total Rounds||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Blachowicz vs Adesanya||2.5||-148||+110|
|Nunes vs Anderson||1.5||-134||+100|
|Yan vs Sterling||3.5||-125||-106|
|Makhachev vs Dober||2.5||-182||+135|
|Santos vs Rakic||1.5||-152||+115|
All odds taken March. 4 at DraftKings
Thiago Santos vs Aleksandar Rakic is such a fun stylistic matchup between two knockout artists. Santos is coming off back-to-back losses to Jon Jones for the belt and Glover Teixeira, while Rakic returned to the win column last time out.
2021 Stanley Cup Odds Tracker
Although both Santos and Rakic are known as finishers, I actually like the over 1.5 total rounds in this fight. Rakic has six UFC fights and has gone over 1.5 four times, while Santos has gone over 1.5 in five of his last six fights. Both men are also durable, and they will respect each other’s power, so I expect it to be a feeling-out process of sorts early on with Rakic mixing in grappling.
Pick: Santos vs Rakic Over 1.5 (-152)
Fight Goes The Distance Odds
|Matchup||Yes Odds||No Odds|
|Blachowicz vs Adesanya||+162||-225|
|Nunes vs Anderson||+325||-500|
|Yan vs Sterling||+120||-162|
|Makhachev vs Dober||-162||+120|
|Santos vs Rakic||+160||-215|
Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling fight doesn’t go the distance is one of my favorite props on the card.
There is no question if the fight remains standing Yan will use his boxing to just pick Sterling apart. Moreover, he’ll land power shots and eventually get a late TKO win as he did to Jose Aldo. However, if Sterling can use his grappling, there is a path for him to submit the Russian and become the new champion.
Yan and Sterling also have a rivalry with one another which adds motivation for them to finish the other. I think it really should be -200 that it doesn’t go the distance.
Pick: Yan-Sterling Not to Go the Distance (-162)
Method of Victory Odds
|Result||KO / TKO / DQ Odds||Submission Odds||Decision Odds|
|Adesanya beat Blachowicz||+130||+2000||+250|
|Blachowicz beats Adesaya||+333||+800||+800|
|Nunes beats Anderson||+100||+188||+400|
|Anderson vs Nunes||+1100||+2500||+1800|
|Yan beats Sterling||+250||+100||+300|
|Sterling beats Yan||+550||+333||+350|
|Makhachev beats Dober||+700||+350||-121|
|Dober beats Makhachev||+500||+1800||+750|
|Santos beats Rakic||+205||+1600||+800|
|Rakic beats Santos||+188||+1200||+225|
Israel Adesanya will become champ-champ and do so by TKO/KO.
Although Adesanya will weigh a lot less than Blachowicz, his striking is next level. There is no question Jan Blachowicz has the power to KO the middleweight champ, however, “The Last Stylebender’s” footwork and head movement are impressive. I expect him to avoid the shots of Blachowicz and start picking him apart.
I think the Paulo Costa fight is very telling as Adesanya was able to use his reach and movement to avoid the shots. He was able to get inside and land two to three hard punches in the pocket and back out. I don’t think Blachowicz will have the speed to counter Adesanya and eventually, in the later rounds, Adesanya gets the TKO win at +130 for my favorite UFC 259 props bet.
Two bonus props I love with a ton of value are Islam Makhachev by submission at +350 and Santos beats Rakic by decision at +800. The last three grapplers Dober has fought he has been submitted. For Santos, I think this fight goes the distance anyway, and to get +800 on top of that is tremendous value.
Pick: Israel Adesanya wins by KO/TKO (+130)
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN and MMA News, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.