Valentina Shevchenko, right, tries to take down Jessica Eye during their women’s flyweight title mixed martial arts bout at UFC 238, Saturday, June 8, 2019, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)
- Kamaru Usman looks to defend his welterweight title again against Jorge Masvidal on Saturday, April 24th, 2021 in Jacksonville
- Usman is more than a -400 favorite, but what props present value?
- Aside from the betting line, here are a handful of props that hold value
The UFC is back in front of a full capacity crowd in Jacksonville, Florida on April 24 for the stacked UFC 261 pay-per-view card that sees three titles on the line. Although title fights are usually competitive, all three champs are above -200. However, there are some UFC 261 props I like to cash on Saturday night.
We’ve already broken down the full UFC 261 main card and found some value on a few fighters, despite it being a chalky main card. Let’s take a look at the props list below.
Total Rounds Odds
|Matchup||Total Rounds at DraftKings||Over Odds||Under Odds|
|Usman vs Masvidal||3.5||-250||+180|
|Zhang vs Namajunas||4.5||-148||+110|
|Shevchenko vs Andrade||4.5||-110||-121|
|Weidman vs Hall||2.5||-115||-115|
|Smith vs Crute||1.5||-182||+135|
All odds as of April 22
Zhang vs Namajunas Under 4.5 Rounds
I really like the under in the co-main event between Weili Zhang vs Rose Namajunas.
Entering the fight, the majority of people expect this fight to go the distance because it is strawweights, and historically, strawweight fights hit the scorecards, but this fight seems different. Zhang proved her power in landing heavy shots against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, who somehow did not get finished. But, if you look past that, Zhang ran through Jessica Andrade in 42 seconds, who was known as being durable, she also has 17 of her 21 wins by stoppage.
HOLY SHIT I CANNOT WAIT!!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/ZJtJTNkewk
— danawhite (@danawhite) April 21, 2021
Why I like the under is due to how Namajunas looked in her last fight. Against Andrade, the former champ was hit a ton and, after three rounds looked gassed. If she gets hit that much in this fight and gets gassed she will get finished. It also helps you on the Namajunas side, as there is a chance she could catch the champ in a submission, but the under 4.5 rounds in the UFC 261 props has great value.
Pick: Weili Zhang-Rose Namajunas Under 4.5 (+110)
2021 Stanley Cup Odds Tracker
Fight Goes The Distance Odds
|Matchup||Yes Odds||No Odds|
|Usman vs Masvidal||-167||+125|
|Zhang vs Namajunas||-134||+100|
|Shevchenko vs Andrade||+105||-139|
|Weidman vs Hall||+100||-134|
|Smith vs Crute||+133||-177|
Usman-Masvidal Doesn’t Go The Distance
The first time Kamaru Usman and Jorge Masvidal fought, it was on short notice, and it went the distance in a very lackluster fight. However, this time around, I do expect there to be a finish.
After Usman beat Gilbert Burns by third-round TKO, he called out “Gamebred” as he was mad at himself for not finishing Masvidal. In his last fight, which was his second full training camp under Trevor Wittman, Usman’s jab looked much better, and he had more power behind his shots. He also has the ground game where he could catch Masvidal with a submission as well, but there is no question he will be gunning for the stoppage.
On the other side, Masvidal’s only path to victory is to KO the champ, and we saw Burns rock Usman last time out. There is a slight chance he could do that, especially if Usman is chasing the finish and makes a mistake and gets caught. Regardless, I don’t think the judges will be needed this time around.
Pick: Usman-Masvidal doesn’t go the distance (+125)
Method of Victory Odds
|Result||KO / TKO Odds||Submission Odds||Decision Odds|
|Usman beat Masvidal||+275||+1400||-134|
|Masvidal beats Usman||+400||+2200||+1100|
|Zhang beats Namajunas||+250||+1400||+150|
|Namajunas beats Zhang||+550||+800||+375|
|Shevchenko beats Andrade||+195||+550||+138|
|Andrade beats Shevchenko||+600||+1200||+900|
|Weidman beats Hall||+700||+450||+205|
|Hall beats Weidman||+195||+1800||+200|
|Smith beats Crute||+550||+750||+425|
|Crute beats Smith||+200||+450||+300|
Shevchenko by KO/TKO/DQ
Valentina Shevchenko has been dominant at flyweight, and I expect her reign to continue and do so by stoppage.
FIIIIIIIIIIIIGHT WEEEEEEEEK!!!! I can’t wait for this Saturday Night!!!!!! pic.twitter.com/HJH2TeAnNz
— danawhite (@danawhite) April 19, 2021
Although Shevchenko has only finished one of her past three fights, I like her to get the finish due to the way Jessica Andrade fights. The Brazilian likes charging forward, but as we saw in the Weili Zhang fight, when that happens she leaves her head and body open, and I expect Shevchenko to take advantage.
I expect Shevchenko to take her out in the middle rounds and finish Andrade via TKO. This UFC 261 prop is listed at +195 at DraftKings.
Pick: Valentina Shevchenko by KO/TKO/DQ (+195)
Cole graduated from Sheridan College in April of 2019 with a diploma in journalism. He now is a full-time freelance writer, focusing on MMA for sites like BJPENN and MMA News, while also covering the Toronto Blue Jays as a credentialed media member. At SBD, Cole covers the four major sports and MMA.