Picking an election bet every day inevitably means backing some selections at very short odds so I appreciate this won’t be to everybody’s taste. However a banker should be called a banker and priced accordingly.
Trump campaign scaled back efforts here
Many experts, even insiders, refer to Michigan as a done deal. The Trump campaign have been pulling ads and diverting resources to more realistic targets for weeks.
Biden’s average poll lead here is 7.9%. Since the beginning of September, no pollster rated B or better on Fivethirtyeight has recorded anything less than 6%.
Trump’s 2016 margin was wafer-thin
Winning this state was Trump’s most miraculous achievement in 2016 and he would be up against it even if running a better campaign. As explained in my state-by-state guide, Michigan fundamentally trends blue. No Republican had won it since the 1980s and his two predecessors had lost by 10% and 16% margins.
It is true that Trump’s style of right-wing politics plays better here than the likes of Mitt Romney and John McCain, but Trump’s share in 2016 was just 47.25% – a lower share of the vote than George W Bush when he lost by 4% – with a tiny 11K vote margin.
That wafer-thin victory relied upon third parties getting a much higher share than usual plus depressed turnout among black voters. This was one of the states targeted by Russian propagandists, with the aim of depressing turnout among strong Democrat groups.
Fight with Whitmer likely to hurt Trump
Across the various 2018 mid-term elections, turnout soared to Democrat advantage, led by Governor Gretchen Whitmer. She has a high approval rating, either because or in spite of a very public war of words with Trump over coronavirus.
The FBI have just charged eight men with a sophisticated plot to kidnap Whitmer. She and others publicly blame Trump for inciting it, and he is downplaying it at rallies. Armed far-right militia have been agitating for months. Every indication is that a clear majority oppose them.
Even were he to win nationally, I’d be amazed if he won Michigan, even regardless of these extreme circumstances.
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