US Open Men’s Singles Round of 16 Odds & Picks

Daniil Medvedev is a heavy favorite to advance to the US Open quarterfinals. Photo by @usopen

  • Labor Day includes four Menโ€™s Round of 16 matches at the US Open
  • Second seed Dominic Thiem is a solid favorite while number three Daniil Medvedev
    is an overwhelming one
  • Where is the top betting value in New York City on Monday?

What is better than a holiday where you can sit back, relax, and watch some sports? A holiday where you make money while doing so.

Labor Day at the US Open has a strong card with Menโ€™s Round of 16 action taking place. Four of the top-10 seeds will take the court, and the odds offer plenty of solid wagering opportunities.

Letโ€™s review the slate, dig into some of the details, and offer up a few plays.

U.S. Open Menโ€™s Singles Round of 16 Odds

Player Odds at DraftKings
Frances Tiafoe +850
Daniil Medvedev -430
Player Odds
Vasek Pospisil +143
Alex De Minaur -177
Player Odds
Felix Auger-Aliassime +155
Dominic Thiem -195
Player Odds
Matteo Berrettini -124
Andrey Rublev +100

All odds taken Sept. 6th

Though perhaps obvious, with an American (Frances Tiafoe) and a two Canadian (Vasek Pospisil and Felix Auger Alisassime) on the docut, it is worth noting that there are no fans allowed because of COVID-19. All three players will not receive the sort of support that the largest show court in professional tennis offers often to fan favorites, in this case from the home or neighboring country, and significant underdogs.

Dominic Thiem vs Felix Auger-Alisassime

Dominic Thiem is not what you think of when you hear โ€œsecond seed.โ€ We have been spoiled for over a decade in menโ€™s tennis with three all-time greats, and you assume number two means a player like Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, or Roger Federer. It is no slight at all to say that Thiem is not yet in that same category.

Because Nadal and Federer are not participating in the U.S. Open, Thiem was given the second seed, and for good reason. He reached the Final in Australia this year, and got to the final match at the French Open in 2018 and 2019.

That said, he has been to the U.S. Open quarterfinals just once.

Thiem has lost just one set in three matches so far, but faces an opponent he has never clashed with before.

20-year-old Felix Auger-Aliassime battled in the first round to defeat Thiago Monteiro in four sets, with three going to tiebreaks. However his last two matches have been dominant straight set wins over Andy Murray and Corentin Moutet.

Auger-Aliassime has limited major experience, his longest run before the one he is currently on was a trip to the third round at Wimbledon last year.

That said, Thiem is probably best on clay courts, and Auger-Aliassime has been the more visually impressive player thus far. He offers some betting value.

Selection: Auger-Aliassime (+155)

2020 US Open Odds Tracker

Matteo Berrettini vs Andrey Rublev

Sixth seed Matteo Berrettini takes on number 10 Andrey Rublev for the fifth time, and second straight year at this stage in NYC.

In the Round of 16 last year, Berrettini claimed a straight set victory over Rublev. Berrettini is 3-1 against the Russian.

Berrettini reached the semifinals at the U.S. Open last year, his best major result. He has not dropped a set thus far and has needed just two tiebreaks to get through.

Rublev also has won each of his nine sets. He has gone to a tiebreak once. This is the third straight major he has reached the fourth round. His only quarterfinal appearance came in New York in 2017.

It is reasonable that the odds are pretty tight, these are both good players. That said Berrettini has a little more experience, and has dominated when the players have gotten together in the recent past.

Selection: Berrettini (-124)

Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe

In a repeat of a first round match from early in the year at the Australian Open, unranked American Frances Tiafoe is a significant underdog against third seed Daniil Medvedev.

The 22-year-old from Maryland has one win in four career tries against Medvedev, but that came in their only meeting on clay. Medvedev is 3-0 against Tiafoe on hard courts including a four set win this year in Melbourne.

Tiafoe needed five sets to come-from-behind and beat John Millman in the second round after a four set victory over Andreas Seppi in his opening match. Tiafoe dispatched Mรกrton Fucsovics in straight sets on Saturday. He has reached one major quarterfinal, last year in Australia.

Medvedev has not dropped a set at the U.S. Open this year. He rallied from two sets down but eventually fell to Nadal in the Final last year in New York.

While Tiafoe has a bright future, these players are not all that close in talent at this stage or current form. Medvedev to win in straight sets is -136, and thatโ€™s the way we are playing it.

Selection: Medvedev in straight sets (-136)

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Dave F.

NFL NBA Golf Sports Writer