The chances of Joe Biden giving his victory speech on Saturday are high, despite what the odds currently indicate. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).
- Biden is destined to reach 270 Electoral votes; will news networks be hesitant to call the race in the next 24 hours?
- The odds of both CNN and Fox News declaring the 2020 election over on Saturday are +105
- The odds of it continuing until at least Sunday, Nov. 8th, are sitting at -135
Take one glimpse at the 2020 Presidential Election odds and it’s clear that sportsbooks believe the outcome is effectively settled: it’s only a matter of time before Joe Biden is declared the victor.
But when it comes to how much time it will take, the outcome is far less certain.
As of Friday evening, the odds of the election being declared over by 11:59 pm ET on Saturday, November 7th, are only a moderately hopeful +105.
Odds 2020 Election Is Called on Saturday, Nov. 7th
|Outcome||2020 Election Odds|
Odds as of Nov. 6.
The prop specifies that both CNN and Fox News must declare a victor by the cutoff time for “Yes” to be graded a winner.
The conservative nature of Fox may be what’s skewing the odds towards “No.”
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At worst, Joe Biden is sitting on 253 Electoral votes as of Friday night. Some outlets, including notoriously conservative Fox News, give him 264 with the addition of Arizona.
Ironically, when looking at the four states that remain “undecided” (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania), Arizona is the one that Trump could actually still win.
Biden pulled ahead in both Georgia and Pennsylvania on Friday afternoon, and widened his lead in Nevada. The remaining votes in all those states are mail-ins and will almost certainly skew blue.
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Arizona’s remaining ballots are from conservative-leaning areas and Trump has a chance of closing a 1% deficit with about 5% of the ballots outstanding.
But Arizona becomes a moot point in light of the other three. Pennsylvania, alone, puts Biden at 273. Georgia and Nevada, together, get him to 275. All three would have him at a convincing 295. If he holds onto Arizona, as well, he’s over three bills (306).
Will Enough Votes Be Counted on Saturday?
The most-likely outcome of the vote-counting on Saturday is that Biden wins Pennsylvania by more than 0.5% (preventing an automatic recount), takes Nevada by a couple percentage points, and maintains his lead in Georgia by a whisker. (The candidates are currently separated by just 4,400 votes, 0.1% of the total.)
It’s also probable that Arizona goes blue, as long as enough votes are counted for media outlets to feel comfortable calling it.
Trump isn’t likely to concede any of the individual states, let alone the entire election, because … he’s Trump.
But that doesn’t actually matter.
Jake Tapper: It Doesn’t Matter If Trump Won’t Concede, He’ll Be ‘Physically Escorted From the Building’ If He ‘Refuses To Acknowledge Reality’
— PoliticsVideoChannel (@politvidchannel) November 6, 2020
If Biden has the votes, he’s the president-elect. News outlets that want to be taken seriously in the Biden era – including Fox – will declare Biden the victor when enough states have been called to give him 270.
That’s likely to be some time tomorrow. “Yes” at plus-money is how I’m playing it.
Pick: Yes (+105)
Sascha has been the Lead Oddsmaker for SBD for over four years, specializing in football, baseball, hockey, and basketball. He has been featured on USA Today’s Draft Wire, Fansided, Chicago Tribune, Newsweek, and numerous additional local and national publications.