Donald Trump carried Georgia in the 2016 Presidential election and is the -275 favorite to do so again in 2020. Photo by: Gage Skidmore (flickr).
- Donald Trump is the -275 favorite to win Georgia in the 2020 US Presidential election
- Democratic challenger Joe Biden is at a betting line of +200
- Trump carried Georgia in 2016 and Republicans have won the state in the past six Presidential elections
Does Joe Biden have Georgia on his mind? Could the Peach State be the apple of his eye? Is Georgia actually in play in the 2020 US Presidential election?
It just might be.
Among two polls that came out this week, one had Democratic challenger Biden ahead by one point. The other showed incumbent Republican Donald Trump with a two-point advantage.
The odds aren’t quite as tight but they are closer than most Presidential races are in the state of Georgia. Trump is the -275 favorite to take Georgia. Biden is the +200 underdog.
Odds to Win Georgia in 2020 Election
|Candidate||Odds at Bet365|
|Donald Trump (Republican)||-275|
|Joe Biden (Democrat)||+200|
Odds taken Sept. 17th.
Trump won Georgia over Democrat Hillary Clinton in the 2016 election. He collected 50.44% of the votes to Clinton’s 45.35%.
Georgia Finds Republicans Just Peachy
Evidently, Georgians like some members of the Clinton family. You have to go all the way back to Bill Clinton winning his first term as President in 1992 to find the last Presidential election in which the people of Georgia went for a Democrat.
Clinton grabbed 43.47% of ballots cast in that election. Incumbent Republican George HW Bush was just behind at 42.88%. A big help to Clinton that year was third-party candidate Ross Perot, who garnered 13.34% of the electorate in Georgia.
Texas and Florida, both states that voted for Trump in 2016 and have GOP governors, are currently 2nd and 3rd in coronavirus cases.
Georgia, another red state run by a Republican, is 5th.
— Justin Baragona (@justinbaragona) September 16, 2020
Four years later, Clinton won reelection but no thanks to Georgians. They went for Republican Bob Dole (47.01%) over Clinton (45.84%).
Ever since then, Georgia has rolled with Republicans. George W Bush carried the state in 2000 and 2004. John McCain won Georgia in 2008 and Mitt Romney took charge in 2012. The 2,089,104 votes garnered four years ago by Trump were the most ever cast for a Presidential candidate in Georgia history.
Since 1960, just two other Democrats have carried Georgia – John F. Kennedy in 1960 and native son Jimmy Carter in 1976 and again in 1980.
2020 NFL MVP Odds Tracker
Polls Sending Mixed Message
Biden’s general election odds improved again this week. The latest numbers, released Sept. 16, show Biden with an average betting line of -122. Trump comes in at +100.
In Georgia, who’s winning depends upon where you look. A Morning Consult poll released Sept. 9 shows Trump at 48% and Biden at 46%. Trump has gained a point since the parties held their national conventions.
Biden 47% (+1)
Biden 50% (+10)
Biden 54% (+14)
Trump 40%@FabrizioWard/@HartSurveys/@AARP, LV, 8/30-9/5
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) September 10, 2020
However, a Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates poll commissioned by the AARP indicated that Biden has jumped into a one-point lead over Trump at 47-46.
Of concern to the Trump campaign must be the numbers among independents in Georgia. They currently show Biden ahead 56-30. Traditionally, independents have leaned reliably toward the GOP in Georgia during past elections.
Trump leads by a massive 75-20 margin among Georgians who plan to vote on Election Day. Biden holds an equally one-sided 72-17 edge among those who plan to vote by mail.
Could Biden Actually Win Georgia?
Should younger voters turn out in force, Trump could be in real jeopardy. Biden holds a 49-40 edge among voters under the age of 45. Even the 46-65 demographic is leaning toward Biden. Trump holds a 56-41 advantage among voters over 65.
If the Democrats are able to get states such as Georgia to fall their way, Trump could be in for a terrible beating on election day. But history is an unwise barometer to ignore.
Pick: Donald Trump (-275).
An industry veteran, Bob literally taught the course on the history of sports at Elder College. He has worked as a Sports Columnist for Postmedia, appeared as a guest on several radio stations, was the Vice President of the Society For International Hockey Research in Ontario, and written 25 books.