Who’s Going to Win Iowa? Trump the Betting Favorite at -300 Odds


Donald Trump making a point

Incumbent Donald Trump is the odds-on -300 favorite to carry Iowa in the 2020 US Presidential election. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).

  • Incumbent Republican Donald Trump is the -300 favorite to carry Iowa in the 2020 US Presidential election
  • Trump garnered 51.15% of the vote in the state to win it during the 2016 election
  • Iowa has gone for the Democratic candidate in six of the last eight Presidential elections

Iowa is known for opening the Presidential election cycle with the Iowa caucuses. The state is expected to end its election cycle by again casting its six Electoral College votes for Donald Trump.

Iowa went for Trump in a big way during the 2016 Presidential election. He garnered 51.15% of the vote to carry the state (Barack Obama won with 51.99% in 2012 but donโ€™t tell The Donald that).

Based upon the 2020 election odds, the betting sites are fairly confident that Iowa is going to stay with Trump. Heโ€™s listed as the -300 chalk to carry the state.

Odds to Win Iowa in 2020 Election

Candidate Odds
Donald Trump (Republican) -300
Joe Biden (Democrat) +225

Odds as of Sept. 23rd at Bet365.

Trumpโ€™s betting line was -260 just about a week ago.

Iowa Likes Incumbents

Iowa is adept at backing winners. The last four Presidential election-winners all carried Iowa.

The Hawkeye State also tends to embrace incumbents. Iowa has gone for the last three and nine of the past 11 incumbents running in Presidential elections.

Iowans arenโ€™t as loyal when it comes to party affiliation, however. Since 1960, theyโ€™ve elected nine Republicans and seven Democrats.

They also tend to like whom they like in a big way. Since 1980, the average margin of victory in Iowa in a Presidential election is 6.58 points.

Trump beat Clinton by 9.41 points.

Trump to Get Big-Ten Bump?

Republicans believe that the last-minute decision by the Big Ten to play a 2020 college football season will help Trump. He had made a big issue of bringing back Big Ten football during his rallies in the midwest.

The Iowa Hawkeyes play in the Big Ten. Originally, on Aug. 11, the Big Ten opted not to play a fall football season due to concerns about COVID-19.

Naturally, Trump reached around to pat himself on the back when Big Ten officials reversed course in mid-September.

Polls Beg to Differ

While Trumpโ€™s advantage in the betting odds for Iowa continue to improve, that isnโ€™t the case when it comes to the election polls.

The latest poll, conducted by Selzer & Co for the Des Moines Register, show Trump and Democrat challenger Joe Biden in a dead heat. Each gained 47% of the support from respondents to the poll.

The Demographics of this polling show a distinct gender divide within the state. Trump leads by 21 points among male voters, while Biden owns a 20-point lead among females. In 2016, Hillary Clinton held just a seven-point edge over Trump among female voters in Iowa.

This could prove unsettling for Trump. Historically, women are more consistent and reliable when it comes to voting than men.

2021 CFP National Championship Odds Tracker

Which Way Will Iowa Go?

Hereโ€™s another worrisome note for Trump. The last two times Iowa didnโ€™t choose the incumbent, both candidates lost the Presidency.

Those who failed to win Iowa and retain the Presidency were George HW Bush (1992) and Jimmy Carter (1980). Iowans havenโ€™t been wrong about an incumbent since they backed Thomas Dewey over FDR in 1944.

Trump flipped Iowa in 2016. The state went Democrat in six of the previous seven elections.

Backing Biden offers solid value.

Pick: Joe Biden (+225)


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Robert Duff

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