Who’s Going to Win North Carolina? Biden (-125) Slightly Ahead of Trump (-110)


Joe Biden speaking

North Carolina is one of the closest contests of any state in the 2020 US Presidential election. Challenger Joe Biden is given -125 odds. Incumbent Donald Trump is at -110. Photo by Gage Skidmore (flickr).

  • North Carolina is among the closest races to call in the 2020 US Presidential election
  • Democrat challenger Joe Biden is slightly favored at odds of -125
  • Incumbent Republican Donald Trump is at a betting line of -110

Both the Democrats and the Republicans have North Carolina in mind to put into their win column. Even at this late stage, it’s still difficult to accurately assess which party will be counting North Carolina’s precious 15 Electoral College votes come election day.

The oddsmakers are leaning ever so slightly toward Democrat challenger Joe Biden in the betting line. The former two-term Vice-President under Barack Obama is listed at odds of -125.

Incumbent Republican Donald Trump is only slightly longer at -110.

Odds to Win Nevada in 2020 Election

Candidate Odds
Joe Biden (Democrat) -125
Donald Trump (Republican) -110

Odds as of Oct. 7th at Bet365.

Trump carried North Carolina during the 2016 Presidential election.

A Moving Object

Is Carolina a red state or a blue state? Lately, mostly red, though cracks are beginning to show in the Republican armor.

Trump edged Hillary Clinton to win the state four years ago. He garnered 49.83% (2,362,631) of the vote, compared to 46.17% (2,189,316) going for Clinton.

That was the second straight election that North Carolina went to the Republicans. Mitt Romney carried the state with 50.39% of the vote in 2012 to beat Obama (48.35). However, North Carolina liked Obama in 2008. He won the state with 49.70% of the vote.

 

North Carolina doesn’t always cotton to the same old, same old, either. The state has voted in favor of just three of the last eight incumbent Presidents. And it hasn’t mattered which side of the aisle they came from.

Besides, Obama, North Carolinians also gave Democrat Bill Clinton a pass in 1996. They didn’t go for Republican Dwight Eisenhower in 1956.

Republicans have carried the state in nine of the past ten presidential elections.  However, the numbers have tightened in recent balloting. The last three elections were decided by an average margin of 2.12 points in the Tar Heel state.

North Carolina was the state with the second-tightest race in each of the past two votes.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker

It’s A Toss Up

The polls are displaying similar closeness to what the betting odds are suggesting in terms of the outcome of the vote within the state.

A CNBC poll showed Biden with a 49-47 advantage over Trump. Hart Surveys also show Biden with a 49-47 edge.

Both Public Policy Polling and East Carolina University gave Biden a 50% share of the numbers in polls conducted this week. East Carolina University show Trump polling at 47%, while Public Policy Polling noted Trump with only a 46% share of the electorate.

ALG Research also showed Biden ahead 50-47. Although an Ipsos poll that dropped Oct. 6 called it a dead heat, with both Biden and Trump at 47%.

The most recent poll, conducted by Data For Progress, shows Biden’s edge to be widening. He’s ahead 51-44 according to their data.

The website 270towin.com ranks North Carolina as a toss-up state. The analytics site fivethirtyeight.com puts Biden’s average lead at 2.3 points (48.6-46.3) over Trump based on a cross-section of all polls taken this month.

Trump Trying to Rally

The Trump campaign certainly recognizes its vulnerability in this state. Trump held two rallies in North Carolina in the past month.

The outcome in North Carolina will go a long way toward telling the tale of this Presidential election.

Trump can’t afford to lose southern states he carried four years ago if he maintains any hope of reelection.

If North Carolina goes for Biden, it’s an indication that Trump is heading for a resounding defeat.

Pick: Donald Trump (-110)

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Robert Duff

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