Who’s Going to Win Wisconsin? Trump’s +175 Odds Trail Biden at -250

Joe Biden and Barack Obama looking at a smartphone

Joe Biden is a heavy favorite to do what Barack Obama did twice: win the state of Wisconsin and its ten Electoral College votes. (Public domain photo.)

  • Democrat Joe Biden is a -250 favorite to carry the state of Wisconsin in the 2020 US Presidential election
  • Bookmakers are listing incumbent Republican Donald Trump at odds of +175
  • Trump won Wisconsin during the 2016 Presidential election

Wisconsin took a turn away from its usual path during the 2016 US Presidential election. For the first time since the days of Ronald Reagan, the state went Republican red.

Donald Trump won Wisconsin’s ten Electoral College votes, a key victory en route to his general election triumph. But he did so by the skin of his teeth.

Four years later, bookmakers are anticipating that Trump will get his teeth figuratively knocked in by the electorate in America’s Dairyland. Democrat challenger Joe Biden is the odds-on -250 favorite to carry Wisconsin.

Trump is a +175 underdog.

Odds to Win Wisconsin in 2020 Election

Candidate Odds
Joe Biden (Democrat) -250
Donald Trump (Republican) +175

Odds as of Oct. 19 at Bet365.

Election day in the USA is Nov. 3rd, exactly 14 days from now.

A Wisconsin Surprise

Trump carried Wisconsin with 47.22% of the total ballot (1,405,284 votes) in 2016. Democrat Hillary Clinton wasn’t far off. She received 46.45% (1,382,536) of all votes. That’s a difference of just 22,748 votes.

It also marked the first time since 1984, when Reagan beat Walter Mondale, that a Republican carried the cheese state. Trump’s triumph ended a seven-election win streak for the Democrats.

Barack Obama won easily in Wisconsin in both 2008 and 2012, garnering more than a 52% share of the vote in each victory. John Kerry (2004), Al Gore (2000), and Bill Clinton (1996, 1992) also took Wisconsin for the Democrats. Even Michael Dukakis carried the state with 51.14% of the votes over George HW Bush in 1988.

Since 1948, Trump, Reagan (1980, 1984), Richard Nixon (1960, 1968, 1972), and Dwight Eisenhower (1952, 1956) are the only Republicans to carry Wisconsin.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds Tracker

When Will Wisconsin Count?

Wisconsin figures to be one of the key states if the 2020 vote is as close as 2016. Yet it also figures to be one of the last states to be counted into the outcome.

Even though Wisconsin is seeing record numbers of early votes being cast, the state doesn’t plan to begin counting ballots until the polls close on Nov. 3rd. That could mean that it’s possible the outcome in Wisconsin won’t be known on election night.

A total of 1.39 million absentee ballots were requested across the state of Wisconsin. As of Oct. 16th, 821,300 of them had been recorded as returned. That’s already 27% of the total votes that were cast across the state in 2016.

In-person absentee voting begins in Wisconsin on Oct. 20th.

Polls Favor Biden

According to the analytics website fivethirtyeight.com, Biden’s lead across polls conducted within the state averages out to 7.3 points. That’s an increase from 6.9 points at the beginning of October.

Biden is holding 50.8% of support, compared to 43.1 for Trump. Any election lead where a candidate is holding more than 50% of the voters is considered to be significant. Trump hasn’t held a lead in the state since mid-April and then it was only 0.3 points.

Across 16 polls taken since Oct. 15th, Biden was the leader in all 16. Ten of them showed Biden garnering 55% of the support.

Only the Trafalgar Group, a notoriously right-leaning pollster, had Trump within five points of Biden’s lead. Ten polls were displaying Biden with a double-digit point advantage.

Pick: Joe Biden (-250)


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Robert Duff