PDC World Championship
Saturday 2 January
Live on Sky Sports Darts
Michael van Gerwen is out of the 2021 PDC World Championships and there’s a new favourite in town.
Dave Chisnall’s remarkable 5-0 win against MVG in the quarter-finals, has seen Gerwyn Price become the 2.68/5 favourite to win the World Championship. Should he do so he’ll move up to number one in the rankings.
The second favourite is Chisnall at 3.55/2 after his amazing performance. Gary Anderson is 4.03/1, with Stephen Bunting the outsider at 11.5.
Gerwyn should win, but Price is not right
Stephen Bunting 3.711/4 v Gerwyn Price 1.364/11
Start time, 18:00
We start with a semi-final with one player who was very much expected to make it to this stage and one who wasn’t.
Bunting was ranked 26th in the world prior to this tournament. He’s a former winner of the BDO World Championship, but his best ever performance at the superior PDC version was in his debut back in 2015, when he reached the quarter-finals.
‘The Bullet’ has been the outsider in each of his matches since the third round, but has made a mockery of the odds. Bunting’s average of 101.01 in his 5-3 quarter-final win against Krzysztof Ratajski was his highest of the tournament so far.
He’ll have to hit even greater heights to beat Price, with Bunting once again the big outsider. Judging by Price’s matches in this tournament, these odds are probably too far apart. With the exception of Price’s 4-1 win over Mervyn King in the fourth round, all of his other games have gone to a final set.
The latest was the quarter-final against Daryl Gurney, which Price won 5-4. Price averaged 96.36 in that game and his finishing was not great, with a checkout percentage of 36.96%. Compared to Bunting’s average and checkout percentage of 52.78% in the quarter-finals, Price has some way to improve, but we know that he’s capable of doing so and has the ability to hold his nerve.
This is a great opportunity for Price to reach his first World Championship final, but there’s not a lot of value in backing him to do so. With Bunting underrated again, back him to average over 95.5 at 1.910/11 and also over 8.5 sets in this best of eleven match, at odds of 1.75/7.
Has Chisnall peaked too soon?
Dave Chisnall 1.794/5 v Gary Anderson 2.245/4
Start time, 20:00
If Chisnall continues to play at the standard that he did in his quarter-final whitewash of Van Gerwen, then it’s hard to see anyone beating him.
With an average of 107.34 and a checkout percentage of 48.39, Chisnall produced the performance of his life to beat an opponent who held a very dominant record against him. Whether ‘Chizzy’ can reproduce such levels is open to debate, but he can afford to see a decline and still be competitive.
The worry for Chisnall backers is his past record at the business end of tournaments. In 2010 he lost in the final of the BDO World Championship. Chisnall made the switch to the PDC in 2011, but has yet to land a major, losing in five finals.
There are no such worries about Anderson, who has won the PDC World Championship on two occasions. Anderson cruised past Dirk van Duijvenbode in the quarter-finals with a 5-1 victory and also had a relatively stress-free quarter-final against Devon Petersen, which he won 4-0.
With Chisnall having to dig deep to beat Dimitri van den Bergh 4-2 in round four and then having to overcome MVG, there is a danger that he might have peaked too soon, while Anderson still has plenty in the tank.
The value could be with Anderson to win at 2.245/4. In the Total 180s market, the level of 23.5 could be ambitious, with Chisnall and Anderson scoring 20 between them in the quarter-finals. There should be more sets than in the quarter-finals, but there could also be a drop in standard from Chisnall, so back under 23.5 180s at 2.01/1.